Tropical Storm Bertha is born, still crawling in the Gulf, with strong wind shear impacting it » Yale Climate Connections

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Tropical Storm Bertha highlights the acute vulnerability of coastal Blue Carbon ecosystems to extreme weather events, threatening the permanence of localized carbon sequestration. **

• Storm surges and high winds physically damage critical LULUCF and Blue Carbon sinks, such as coastal mangroves and wetlands, leading to immediate vegetation loss and soil erosion.
• Severe flooding and saline intrusion can alter soil chemistry, reducing the long-term carbon sequestration capacity of impacted estuarine ecosystems.
• Frequent storm disturbances disrupt ecological succession, hindering the long-term environmental stability required for high-integrity nature-based solutions.

Market & Policy Outlook

**The physical risks of tropical storms in the Gulf underscore the critical importance of the ICVCM’s permanence guidelines, triggering structural reassessments of carbon credit buffer pools. **

• Increased frequency of extreme weather events threatens the financial viability of LULUCF projects, potentially invoking force majeure clauses and impacting market supply and pricing of high-integrity carbon credits.
• Corporate buyers evaluating Scope 3 emissions under SBTi standards must account for rising physical climate risks and potential credit reversals in their nature-based offset portfolios.
• Regulatory bodies and insurance markets are forced to adjust risk premiums, driving demand for more robust risk-mitigation frameworks aligned with Article 6.4 mechanism guidelines.