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Cited 7 July 2026: ‘Impossible’ heat | Global ocean record | Climate change and the ozone hole - Carbon Brief
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**Record-breaking ocean temperatures and escalating extreme heat events are severely degrading global Blue Carbon sinks and terrestrial ecosystems, threatening their long-term carbon sequestration capacity. **
- Rising marine heatwaves accelerate coral bleaching and the collapse of coastal kelp forests, destabilizing critical marine biodiversity and ecosystems.
- Elevated ocean temperatures reduce CO2 solubility, weakening the marine biological carbon pump while ozone interactions pose ongoing radiation risks to terrestrial LULUCF carbon sinks.
- Cumulative thermal stress triggers compounding ecological feedback loops that risk transitioning vital global carbon sinks into net emitters.
Market & Policy Outlook
**Escalating planetary heat and ocean warming undermine the 'permanence' criteria of the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs), forcing stricter regulatory baselines and driving corporate focus toward SBTi-aligned value-chain reductions. **
- Regulators are tightening baseline methodologies and risk buffer requirements under Article 6.4 and LULUCF frameworks to account for heightened non-permanence risks.
- Market pricing for Nature-Based Solutions faces downward pressure due to rising reversal risks, shifting investment liquidity toward technical carbon removal and guaranteed ITMOs.
- Corporates are reassessing their Scope 3 compliance portfolios, favoring SBTi-validated absolute emissions reductions over highly vulnerable voluntary forest carbon offsets.
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