Climate Change Stopped the Next Ice Age

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Anthropogenic radiative forcing has overridden orbital Milankovitch cycles, triggering an unprecedented shift in cryosphere dynamics and structural baseline destabilization. **

• Accelerated loss of Arctic ice sheets disrupts high-latitude terrestrial and marine trophic webs, creating severe stress for cold-adapted polar biodiversity.
• The premature cessation of glaciation accelerates permafrost thaw, threatening to convert northern LULUCF sinks into massive net-positive carbon and methane sources.
• Loss of regional albedo and melting freshwater inputs jeopardize long-term environmental stability by weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) predictability.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Evidence of human interruption of geological-scale glacial cycles exposes severe permanence risks, forcing a critical reassessment under the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles. **

• Regulatory bodies governing Article 6.2 and Article 6.4 ITMO transfers must revise long-term reference baselines to incorporate accelerated non-linear planetary warming trends.
• Voluntary carbon markets will see widened price spreads between ephemeral nature-based credits and permanent technical removals, as ICVCM CCP criteria heighten scrutiny on reversal risks (CCP 7) and baseline conservatism (CCP 3).
• Corporate net-zero strategies aligned with SBTi will face increased pressure to restrict Scope 3 neutralizations to durable, permanent carbon removals rather than vulnerable open-system terrestrial sinks.