Collapse of Atlantic Currents Could Drive a Surge in Warming

Nature & Climate Perspective

**The destabilization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) threatens catastrophic disruption to marine and terrestrial carbon sinks, triggering non-linear climate tipping points globally. **

• Altered ocean circulation directly impairs the capacity of marine ecosystems and Blue Carbon frameworks to sequester atmospheric CO2 due to disrupted nutrient cycling and thermal stratification.
• Severe precipitation shifts and regional cooling in Northern Europe severely threaten terrestrial LULUCF baselines, degrading the ecological resilience of temperate and boreal forest biomass.
• Accelerated warming across tropical and Southern Hemisphere regions amplifies irreversible biodiversity loss and elevates catastrophic reversal risks for Nature-Based Solutions (NbS).

Market & Policy Outlook

**Systemic ocean circulation risks challenge the foundational permanence and baseline criteria of the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles, prompting tighter risk buffer requirements across carbon markets. **

• Article 6.4 and international regulatory bodies will face heightened demands to adjust sovereign ITMO baselines and mandate rigorous reversal mitigation mechanisms to address escalating physical climate risks.
• Carbon market pricing is likely to experience flight-to-quality dynamics, pushing capital away from vulnerable biological sinks toward durable, engineered CDR with verifiable permanence under ICVCM CCP guidelines.
• Corporates adhering to SBTi net-zero pathways and Scope 3 reporting must re-evaluate supply-chain resilience models and physical asset valuations against accelerated regional temperature anomalies.