Compound and heterogeneous relationships between climate extremes and global net migration

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Compound climate extremes driving human displacement severely undermine local ecological stewardship and dramatically elevate non-permanence risks for carbon sinks. **

• Depopulation and labor disruptions caused by climate migration lead to the abandonment of active conservation and invasive species control, fracturing delicate biodiversity corridors.
• Displaced populations relocating along secondary migration pathways trigger unplanned land clearing and localized deforestation, shifting baseline carbon stock trajectories within LULUCF accounting regimes.
• Compound shocks—such as concurrent drought and fire regimes—erode the long-term environmental stability of terrestrial and Blue Carbon reserves, directly challenging the permanence benchmarks mandated by the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Climate-induced migration patterns destabilize project-level permanence safeguards and disrupt the institutional execution of Article 6 carbon crediting frameworks. **

• Sovereign host countries face heightened hurdles in guaranteeing Corresponding Adjustments under Article 6.2 and Article 6.4 when cross-border population shifts undermine the political and territorial stability needed to issue authorized ITMOs.
• Carbon rating agencies and capital allocators are expanding risk discounts and demanding larger permanence buffer pools under ICVCM CCP guidelines to account for demographic volatility and local project abandonment.
• Corporate buyers relying on agricultural and forestry credits for SBTi-aligned Scope 3 supply-chain abatement face increased legal, human rights, and reputational exposure due to social safeguards failures among climate-displaced community labor.