Y cómo el cambio climático lo afecta
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Yale Climate Connections
Cuatro cosas que debes saber sobre El Niño
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**El Niño events, intensified by anthropogenic climate change, trigger widespread ecological volatility that compromises the integrity of global carbon sinks. **
- Extreme drought cycles in tropical regions exacerbate forest mortality and wildfire frequency, directly undermining LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry) carbon stocks.
- Anomalous sea surface temperatures disrupt marine biodiversity and degrade Blue Carbon ecosystems, potentially causing mass coral bleaching and seagrass loss.
- The shift in precipitation patterns threatens the long-term sequestration stability of nature-based projects by altering the fundamental hydrological balance of peatlands and wetlands.
Market & Policy Outlook
**Increased climate variability from ENSO cycles poses a significant risk to the 'Permanence' principle of the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs). **
- Project developers must reconcile ENSO-driven volatility with ICVCM requirements for high-integrity credits, necessitating more robust buffer pool allocations to mitigate non-permanence risk.
- Fluctuating agricultural yields and water scarcity impact corporate Scope 3 compliance and SBTi-aligned supply chain resilience strategies.
- Regulatory mechanisms under Article 6.4 must integrate ENSO-adjusted baselines to ensure that ITMO (Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes) accounting remains accurate during extreme weather years.
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