One-third of projects may have gone ahead even without the credit revenue, new research reveals.
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Doubts cast over pig farm methane credits in China
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**The integrity of methane mitigation in the agricultural sector is compromised when credits are issued for projects lacking additionality, leading to the overestimation of actual greenhouse gas abatement. **
- Failure to verify additionality in livestock waste management disrupts the accurate accounting of methane—a gas with a Global Warming Potential significantly higher than CO2—within the LULUCF framework.
- The misallocation of capital toward non-additional projects diverts resources from genuine biodiversity and soil health restoration efforts that require carbon finance to survive.
- Inconsistent monitoring of pig farm waste streams risks long-term environmental instability by providing a 'license to pollute' without achieving the promised net-atmospheric benefit.
Market & Policy Outlook
**These findings directly challenge the 'Additionality' and 'Robust Quantification' pillars of the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs), likely triggering a devaluation of agricultural offsets in the voluntary market. **
- The lack of additionality suggests that these credits may fail to qualify as high-quality ITMOs under Article 6.4, limiting their cross-border fungibility and financial liquidity.
- Corporates utilizing these credits for SBTi-aligned net-zero claims face significant reputational and regulatory risks as 'greenwashing' scrutiny shifts toward technical verification of project baselines.
- Market pricing is expected to bifurcate, with a premium placed on 'CCP-labeled' credits while legacy projects lacking rigorous additionality tests are phased out of major exchanges.
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