Iran and the US are the only two of the world’s top 20 carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters that lack a net-zero target, as shown in the map below.
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Factcheck: US and Iran are world’s only major emitters without net-zero targets - Carbon Brief
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**The absence of statutory net-zero targets in the US and Iran complicates the validation of LULUCF-based sequestration projects by undermining the baseline of additionality required for high-integrity credits. **
- Lack of national mandates results in inconsistent protection of biodiversity corridors, as ecosystem services remain subject to fluctuating executive priorities rather than permanent legislative safeguards.
- The absence of a unified net-zero framework for LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry) makes it difficult to establish 'business-as-usual' scenarios for carbon sequestration projects.
- Long-term environmental stability is threatened by the potential for policy reversals in major emitting nations, which discourages patient capital from entering restoration-heavy nature-based solutions.
Market & Policy Outlook
**The US and Iran's lack of national net-zero legislation creates a significant hurdle for Article 6. 2 and 6.4 implementation, particularly concerning corresponding adjustments and international credit fungibility.**
- In the context of the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs), the lack of a national target makes it harder for credits originating in these regions to demonstrate true 'transition alignment'.
- Market pricing remains fragmented as the US relies on sector-specific subsidies (Inflation Reduction Act) rather than a compliance-driven carbon price, leading to lower financial liquidity in regulated markets compared to the EU.
- Corporate entities operating in these jurisdictions face heightened SBTi compliance risks, as they must navigate net-zero commitments without the tailwinds of domestic statutory alignment.
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