Colorado State University’s hurricane forecasting team is expecting El Niño to bring a slightly below-average season with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
Back to Climate News
Yale Climate Connections
Forecasters predict a slightly below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**A below-average hurricane season provides a temporary window for increased permanence and ecological stability in coastal Blue Carbon and LULUCF projects. **
- Reduced storm surge and wind damage preserves the structural integrity of mangroves and seagrass beds, which are critical for Blue Carbon sequestration.
- The projected lower frequency of major hurricanes minimizes short-term reversal risks for Atlantic-based carbon sinks, maintaining biomass levels.
- El Niño patterns may alter localized precipitation, requiring projects to balance reduced storm risk against potential drought impacts on LULUCF soil moisture.
Market & Policy Outlook
**The reduction in predicted extreme weather events enhances the risk profile for Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), directly impacting ICVCM-aligned permanence assessments. **
- Lower physical risk strengthens alignment with ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) regarding permanence, potentially reducing the required contribution to project buffer pools.
- Market pricing for Atlantic-region credits may stabilize as financial liquidity improves due to lowered short-term catastrophe risk for insurers and investors.
- Corporate compliance strategies under SBTi or Scope 3 can more reliably integrate sequestration forecasts from hurricane-prone regions during this below-average cycle.
This story moves you. Here's what you can do.
Related Resources
Sourcing:
Contact our trading desk for customized environmental commodities for your needs
Request sourcing: Article 6.2 (ITMOs)