Glacier-driven Nepal flood shows mounting risks in warming Himalayas | News | Eco-Business | Asia Pacific

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Rapid cryospheric destabilization in the Himalayas escalates physical catastrophe risks, directly threatening the permanence of regional LULUCF carbon sinks and montane biodiversity. **

• Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and slope collapses destroy downstream alpine and sub-alpine biodiversity corridors, accelerating habitat degradation.
• Extreme hydrological volatility compromises the biomass carbon sequestration capacity and long-term viability of montane afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation (ARR) projects.
• Widespread permafrost thaw and glacial retreat induce irreversible long-term changes to watershed stability and soil carbon retention in high-altitude catchments.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Mounting Himalayan climate physical risks intensify scrutiny under the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles regarding permanence and raise the cost of Article 6 project underwriting. **

• Heightened non-permanence and reversal risks challenge adherence to ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs), likely forcing rating agencies and registries to mandate larger insurance buffer pool contributions for regional credits.
• Host-country risk profiles may impact the pricing and authorization of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) under Article 6.2 and Article 6.4 crediting mechanisms.
• Corporate entities subject to SBTi climate adaptation targets face mounting pressure to evaluate Scope 3 upstream supply chain vulnerabilities exposed to high-altitude hydrological disruptions.