Nature Climate Change, Published online: 27 February 2026; doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02563-7A temporary breach of the temperature target, or overshoot, is unavoidable. The authors review the history of how overshoot evolved in mitigation pathways, the magnitude and outcomes of potential physical and socio-economic impacts, and priorities for future model and scenario development.
BackImplications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies
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Ecosystem Impact
Climate overshoot increases the probability of crossing irreversible tipping points, such as permafrost thaw and coral reef collapse, which may not recover even if temperatures are eventually stabilized. The temporary breach of thermal limits can permanently degrade biodiversity and transform vital carbon sinks like the Amazon rainforest into net carbon sources due to heat stress and altered precipitation patterns.
Systemic Reality
Reliance on overshoot scenarios shifts the global policy focus toward massive scale-up of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies, creating high financial risk and dependency on unproven infrastructure. This approach alters carbon pricing dynamics, introduces significant volatility into insurance markets, and necessitates a transition to 'net-negative' economic frameworks to avoid long-term structural collapse from compounded physical climate risks.
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