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In an Already Broiling Summer, El Niño Is About to Turn Up the Heat

Abatify Summary

Nature & Climate Perspective

**El Niño-fueled extreme heatwaves pose acute risks to global ecosystem stability, directly threatening LULUCF carbon sinks through accelerated permanence reversal risks. **

  • Escalating global temperatures severely disrupt terrestrial and marine biodiversity, accelerating habitat degradation across vulnerable European and Asian biomes.
  • Widespread heat and drought significantly impair biomass accumulation, weakening critical forest carbon sequestration capacity and triggering increased wildfire risk.
  • Prolonged extreme weather events disrupt historical baselines, threatening long-term ecological resilience and the physical stability of Nature-Based projects.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Intensifying climate extremes expose critical permanence vulnerabilities in land-use offset projects, pressuring ICVCM alignment and risk buffer pool mechanisms. **

  • Standard setters and regulators face increasing pressure to adjust buffer pool calculations under the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) to account for heightened climate physical risks.
  • Market pricing may bifurcate as physical climate impacts threaten the credit delivery of LULUCF and Blue Carbon projects relative to technological removals.
  • Corporates aligning with SBTi targets face increased supply chain volatility, necessitating re-evaluated Scope 3 physical risk assessments and resilient procurement strategies.
El Niño is expected to intensify in the weeks ahead, fueling more severe heat across the globe, according to the U.N. World Meteorological Organization. The forecast comes as blistering heat shatters temperature records from Europe to Asia. Read more on E360 →
El Niño is expected to intensify in the weeks ahead, fueling more severe heat across the globe, according to the U.N. World Meteorological Organization. The forecast comes as blistering heat shatters temperature records from Europe to Asia.Read more on E360 →

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