Nature Climate Change, Published online: 24 April 2026; doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02619-8High-resolution modelling incorporating sea surface temperature variability reveals that ocean warming has already reduced sea–land breeze days in most large coastal cities. Thus, ocean warming poses an overlooked threat to a natural climate regulator, with future emissions pathways determining whether the decline accelerates or slows.
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Large coastal cities are losing sea–land breeze
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**The weakening of coastal breezes exacerbates the urban heat island effect, directly threatening the thermal stability of Blue Carbon ecosystems and local biodiversity. **
- Reduced nighttime cooling increases thermal stress on intertidal zones and seagrass meadows, potentially compromising their capacity for carbon sequestration.
- Stagnant air patterns lead to higher concentrations of urban pollutants, which can settle into coastal waters and degrade LULUCF-related nutrient cycles.
- The disruption of local moisture transport mechanisms threatens the long-term stability of coastal flora, making these regions more susceptible to invasive species and drought.
Market & Policy Outlook
**Diminished natural cooling triggers a surge in cooling-related energy demand, complicating corporate Scope 2 decarbonization and alignment with SBTi net-zero targets. **
- The loss of natural thermal regulation necessitates a shift in urban planning toward mandated 'cooling corridors,' likely influencing future LEED and B Corp infrastructure standards.
- Increased electricity demand for HVAC systems may drive higher market pricing for I-RECs as corporations seek to offset the emissions spike from grid-based cooling.
- Under the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs), the 'additionality' of urban nature-based solutions (NbS) projects will gain premium value as coastal cities seek to restore microclimate stability.
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