Long-Term Study Suggests Landfill Methane Emissions Are Far Higher Than Estimates – State of the Planet

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Underestimating landfill methane emissions severely distorts localized environmental impact models and accelerates short-term atmospheric warming due to methane's high global warming potential. **

• Undetected fugitive methane emissions exacerbate ground-level atmospheric degradation and increase air quality stress near landfill ecosystems.
• Underreported emissions mean local carbon cycle balances and surrounding land-based sequestration metrics have been systematically overestimated.
• Addressing uncaptured waste emissions is essential for long-term ecological stability and preventing localized environmental health hazards.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Discrepancies between modeled and ground-based emissions directly challenge ICVCM Core Carbon Principles regarding robust quantification, destabilizing offset baselines and corporate carbon accounting. **

• Regulatory bodies are likely to mandate continuous ground-based MRV systems, directly impacting baseline methodologies under Article 6.4 mechanisms for waste-gas projects.
• Inaccurate waste emission baselines create compliance risks for corporations calculating Scope 3 footprints under SBTi net-zero targets.
• Market valuation of historical landfill gas (LFG) offset credits risks devaluation as ICVCM CCP alignment demands stricter measurement standards.