Mining and extraction threaten global 30x30 target: report

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Extensive extractive overlaps across over 104 million hectares of tropical protected areas directly imperil the 30x30 target and threaten the ecological integrity of critical biogenic carbon sinks. **

• Industrial fragmentation from mining and fossil fuel concessions compromises keystone biodiversity corridors and accelerates habitat loss within designated tropical reserves.
• Concession encroachment destabilizes core LULUCF carbon reservoirs, triggering significant risk of forest dieback and transforming high-density sequestration zones into net emission sources.
• Subsurface extraction and infrastructure development create chronic environmental instability, compounding localized watershed degradation and reducing biome resilience to climate stressors.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Systemic concession conflicts jeopardize nature-based carbon credit integrity, directly conflicting with ICVCM Core Carbon Principles regarding permanence and additionality. **

• Sovereign host-nation conflicts between extractive licensing and conservation commitments introduce structural risk into Article 6.2 and Article 6.4 frameworks, potentially invalidating ITMO transfers.
• Voluntary carbon market assets tied to overlapping areas face steep integrity discounts or stranded-asset status due to non-compliance with the ICVCM CCP permanence and risk mitigation criteria.
• Corporate buyers relying on jurisdictional REDD+ or LULUCF credits face regulatory scrutiny and greenwashing liabilities under SBTi corporate net-zero standards for Scope 3 mitigation claims.