Pacific Ocean Pattern Helps Explain Diverging Wildfire Trends in U.S. and Australia – State of the Planet

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Shiftable Pacific Ocean climate patterns are driving divergent regional fire risks, directly impacting the permanence and baseline assumptions of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) in LULUCF projects. **

• Divergent wildfire regimes alter local biodiversity and habitat stability across Western US coniferous forests and Australian eucalyptus biomes.
• Wildfire volatility threatens long-term carbon sequestration durability, creating heightened reversal risks for terrestrial carbon stock accounting.
• Oceanic teleconnections disrupt local ecosystem predictability, complicating baseline modeling for long-term ecological restoration.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Asymmetric wildfire trajectories undermine standard non-permanence buffer pools, requiring alignment with ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) to manage regional risk. **

• Regulatory frameworks must reassess LULUCF carbon accounting rules to comply with ICVCM CCP guidance on physical climate risks and buffer pool adequacy.
• Market pricing and financial liquidity for land-use carbon offsets will increasingly bifurcate based on regional ocean-atmosphere vulnerability profiles.
• Corporate buyers aiming for SBTi net-zero alignment face elevated Scope 3 neutralisation risks due to unpriced climate teleconnection hazards.