Over the last four years, Colombia has emerged as one of the most vocal advocates...
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Carbon Brief
Q&A: What change of power in Colombia could mean for world’s fossil-fuel transition
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**A shift back to fossil-fuel extraction in Colombia threatens to accelerate Amazonian deforestation and undermine national LULUCF climate targets. **
- Reversing the ban on new oil and gas exploration could drive infrastructure development into pristine ecosystems, accelerating habitat fragmentation in the Amazon and Andean forests.
- Changes in political leadership risk disrupting existing nature-based carbon projects, directly impacting the permanence and baseline integrity of regional LULUCF initiatives.
- Weakened environmental protections may diminish the long-term ecological stability of Colombia's critical biodiversity corridors and coastal blue carbon sinks.
Market & Policy Outlook
**Political transition in Colombia exposes international voluntary carbon markets to heightened sovereign risk, directly challenging ICVCM CCP alignment on permanence and baseline additionality. **
- A pivot back to fossil fuels may weaken Colombia's NDC ambition, altering the supply and demand dynamics of ITMOs and Article 6.2 sovereign carbon transactions.
- Market pricing for Colombian carbon credits could face downward pressure if international buyers perceive increased regulatory uncertainty and divergence from SBTi-aligned corporate net-zero targets.
- Regulatory shifts could stall domestic green tax frameworks and decrease financial liquidity for transition bonds, affecting corporate compliance under international ESG standards.
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