Rising CO2 Speeds the Growth of Grasses on the African Savanna

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Accelerated savanna grass biomass accumulation driven by CO2 fertilization escalates wildfire intensity and destabilizes dryland carbon sinks. **

• Altered fuel loads intensify wildfire regimes, disrupting native herbivore forage patterns, migration corridors, and trophic biodiversity across arid biomes.
• While elevated herbaceous growth increases immediate gross primary productivity, the corresponding fire vulnerability converts dryland carbon sequestration into volatile, transient stores.
• The shifting woody-to-herbaceous balance compromises long-term ecological resilience and depletes topsoil organic carbon (SOC) under frequent burn cycles.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Elevated wildfire frequencies in dryland ecosystems exacerbate permanence and baseline risks under ICVCM Core Carbon Principles and Article 6. 4 mechanisms.**

• National LULUCF accounting and Article 6.2/6.4 crediting methodologies must dynamically adjust reference baselines and increase buffer pool contributions to reflect heightened natural disturbance risks.
• Savanna carbon offset issuances face pricing discounts and liquidity constraints unless project developers guarantee rigorous compliance with ICVCM CCP requirements for robust quantification and permanence.
• Corporates relying on savanna-based avoidance or removal credits for SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation or Scope 3 reporting risk non-compliance due to climate-accelerated reversal vulnerabilities.