Study Reveals How Gas Bubbles Shaped Kīlauea’s 2018 Lava Flow – State of the Planet

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Improved geological modeling of volcanic lava flows is critical for predicting the catastrophic destruction of terrestrial carbon sinks and localized biodiversity hotspots. **

• Lava flow predictive accuracy directly impacts the preservation strategies for nearby high-biodiversity ecosystems and endemic species vulnerable to sudden eruptive events.
• Volcanic eruptions present acute reversal risks for carbon sequestration, as lava can instantly combust biomass in adjacent LULUCF projects, releasing decadal carbon stores.
• Accurate forecasting of lava pathing and cooling rates enables better long-term ecological soil-rebuilding projections and post-disaster forest recovery planning.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Refining volcanic physical risk models is essential for safeguarding carbon credit permanence under ICVCM guidelines and maintaining the financial viability of geologically exposed offset projects. **

• Under the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs), carbon projects in volcanic zones must integrate sophisticated flow models to justify their risk-mitigation buffer pool contributions.
• Enhanced physical risk forecasting alters insurance underwriting liquidity and pricing structures for corporate investments in Nature-Based solutions.
• Corporations align with SBTi frameworks by utilizing advanced geological hazard models to map and mitigate Scope 3 supply chain disruptions in volcanically active jurisdictions.