TD 2 predicted to strengthen near upper Gulf Coast » Yale Climate Connections

Nature & Climate Perspective

**The development of Tropical Depression 2 threatens critical Blue Carbon and coastal forestry projects along the Gulf Coast, highlighting the physical permanence risks inherent in nature-based carbon sinks. **

• Extreme weather events like TD 2 disrupt sensitive coastal ecosystems, risking immediate physical degradation of salt marshes and seagrass beds that act as vital biodiversity corridors.
• High-velocity winds and storm surges can cause rapid carbon reversals in LULUCF projects, converting active sinks into emissions sources due to biomass destruction.
• Repeated storm impacts undermine the ecological resilience of coastal buffer zones, making long-term habitat restoration and baseline additionality calculations increasingly volatile.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Increasing frequency of severe weather events in the Gulf of Mexico directly challenges the ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles on permanence, testing the adequacy of registry buffer pools. **

• Rising physical risks may force registries to adjust LULUCF risk mitigation requirements, potentially leading to more stringent buffer pool contributions under ICVCM CCP 8 (Permanence).
• Frequent storm disruptions create pricing premiums for high-permanence, geologically sequestered carbon credits over nature-based solutions, shifting buyer preferences within the VCM.
• Corporations utilizing Blue Carbon or coastal forestry offsets to meet SBTi net-zero targets face heightened Scope 3 accounting risks if storm-induced reversals are not adequately insured or replaced.