The Eastern Pacific is a tropical storm factory, and the Atlantic Basin shows signs of life » Yale Climate Connections

Nature & Climate Perspective

**Escalating tropical storm activity in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins threatens coastal ecosystems, potentially triggering massive carbon reversals in Blue Carbon and LULUCF sinks. **

• High-intensity storms cause physical destruction of coastal mangrove forests and seagrass beds, severely compromising Blue Carbon sequestration capacity.
• Extreme weather events accelerate soil erosion and canopy loss in coastal forests, shifting these habitats from carbon sinks to net carbon sources under LULUCF accounting.
• Frequent storm surges disrupt marine and terrestrial biodiversity corridors, undermining the long-term ecological resilience necessary for permanent carbon storage.

Market & Policy Outlook

**The growing frequency and severity of extreme weather events challenge the permanence criteria under the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles, driving up insurance premiums and buffer pool requirements for nature-based carbon offsets. **

• Increased physical risks from storms necessitate a reassessment of risk buffer pools under the ICVCM CCPs, potentially reducing the net yield of tradable credits for project developers.
• Regulatory frameworks and sovereign registries evaluating Article 6.2 and 6.4 ITMOs must integrate dynamic climate modeling to account for heightened force majeure risks in coastal jurisdictions.
• Corporate buyers aligning with SBTi targets are likely to shift capital toward high-permanence technical removals as nature-based solutions face compounding physical delivery risks.