This could be the strongest El Niño on record

Abatify Summary

**An unprecedentedly strong El Niño threatens global ecological stability, directly undermining the permanence of nature-based carbon sinks. **

Extreme weather anomalies and altered tropical cyclone paths threaten fragile coastal ecosystems, severely impacting Blue Carbon sequestration habitats.
Widespread drought and temperature anomalies risk triggering catastrophic forest diebacks, elevating the reversal risk for LULUCF projects worldwide.
Accelerated coral bleaching and terrestrial habitat degradation threaten long-term ecological baselines, complicating biodiversity credit underwriting.

**Extreme climate volatility will force a drastic recalibration of carbon market buffer pools and corporate Scope 3 risk disclosures. **

Regulatory bodies governing Article 6.2 and 6.4 mechanisms must adjust baseline assumptions as extreme weather alters national carbon accounting.
The ICVCM's Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) regarding permanence will require stricter risk premium adjustments, driving up the cost of nature-based credits.
Corporations aligning with SBTi targets face heightened supply chain disruptions, forcing a shift in corporate risk assessment from offset procurement to physical asset resilience.

Already, tropical cyclones are peppering the Pacific and skipping the Atlantic, and U.S. temperatures are topsy-turvy.

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