UN says ‘no time to lose’ as record ‘supersized’ El Nino approaches

Nature & Climate Perspective

**A record-breaking El Niño phenomenon severely escalates non-permanence reversal risks across global biomass sinks, challenging ecological resilience through compound climate extremes. **

• Severe droughts and flash flooding accelerate the degradation of fragile tropical ecosystems and jeopardize sensitive Blue Carbon coastal wetlands.
• Prolonged heat stress and elevated wildfire activity severely impair carbon sequestration rates, directly threatening the net absorption capacity of LULUCF assets.
• Protracted climate disruption extending to 2027 risks pushing vulnerable biomes past irreversible ecological tipping points, undermining structural environmental stability.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Systemic climate shocks will test voluntary and compliance carbon mechanisms, exposing vulnerabilities in ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) regarding permanence and buffer pool adequacy. **

• Regulators managing Article 6.2 and Article 6.4 mechanisms will face pressure to recalibrate dynamic baselines and restrict ITMO generation from high-risk climate zones.
• Heightened risk of physical reversals will compel carbon crediting registries to increase mandatory buffer pool retention, straining liquidity and causing price premiums for CCP-compliant, high-durability credits.
• Corporate buyers relying on land-based mitigations to satisfy SBTi Scope 3 abatement pathways will encounter heightened audit scrutiny and delivery shortfalls due to project-level climate hazards.