Why land-use emissions have fallen by a third this century – in six charts

Nature & Climate Perspective

**A sustained reduction in global land-use emissions signals stabilizing terrestrial carbon sinks, yet ongoing forest degradation continues to threaten ecological resilience. **

• Mitigated deforestation rates alleviate immediate habitat fragmentation, preserving critical biodiversity hotspots across tropical and temperate biomes.
• Reduced conversion of peatlands and primary forests stabilizes soil carbon reservoirs and prevents irreversible high-density biogenic carbon release.
• Long-term ecological stability remains vulnerable to climate feedbacks, requiring enhanced LULUCF monitoring to protect secondary and recovering forest ecosystems.

Market & Policy Outlook

**Shifting land-use baselines fundamentally alter Article 6 accounting and necessitate stricter baseline integrity under ICVCM Core Carbon Principles. **

• National emission reductions in the LULUCF sector directly impact host country NDC trajectories and the crediting thresholds for Article 6.2 and Article 6.4 ITMO generation.
• In light of ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCPs), historical baseline methodologies for Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) face downward revisions to ensure genuine additionality and prevent over-crediting.
• Corporate buyers aligning with SBTi Forest, Land and Agriculture (FLAG) guidance must recalibrate Scope 3 accounting against these evolving macro land-use emission profiles.