A much-discussed “return to coal” by some countries in the wake of the Iran war...
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Carbon Brief
World ‘will not see significant return to coal’ in 2026 – despite Iran crisis
Abatify Summary
Nature & Climate Perspective
**The resilience against a coal resurgence ensures that critical carbon sinks and biodiversity hotspots avoid the localized degradation and heavy metal contamination typically associated with expanded mining operations. **
- Mitigates the expansion of LULUCF-disrupting infrastructure, preserving indigenous habitats that would otherwise be cleared for coal extraction.
- Reduces the risk of acidification in Blue Carbon ecosystems by maintaining a downward trajectory for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions.
- Strengthens long-term environmental stability by reinforcing the 1.5°C pathway, which is essential for the survival of coral reefs and primary forest biomes.
Market & Policy Outlook
**The market's refusal to pivot back to coal, even during geopolitical volatility, signals a permanent shift toward I-RECs and Article 6. 2 frameworks as the primary drivers of energy security.**
- Aligns with ICVCM Core Carbon Principles by ensuring that the baseline for additionality in renewable energy projects remains aggressive rather than reverting to high-emission scenarios.
- Accelerates corporate compliance with SBTi Net-Zero standards as the perceived 'safety net' of coal power diminishes, forcing investment into Scope 2 decarbonization.
- Enhances financial liquidity for technical carbon removals and ITMOs as sovereign states prioritize long-term grid transition over short-term fossil fuel subsidies.
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